Alpha Coverage - 10
Weekly Stock Market Newsletter - News/Articles/Podcasts/YouTube/Books
This is the 10th edition of Alpha Coverage - A weekly newsletter to bring you a summary of critical, thesis changing stock market news. We cover news articles, opinion pieces as well as podcasts to help you stay informed.
We cover over 250 tickers across US Equities, Emerging Market equities, Equity ETFs, Commodities ETFs, Income ETFs, Leveraged ETFs, Crypto & REITs & mREITs.
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Editor’s Pick:
Netflix gains as report shows subscriber spike after password crackdown
Average daily sign-ups to Netflix hit 73,000 during the period just after announcing the U.S. move, a 102% increase from its 60-day average -- topping even the sign-up spike that Netflix saw during initial COVID-19 lockdowns, Antenna noted.
Cancellations also increased, Antenna said, but not as much as sign-ups did: The ratio of sign-ups to cancellations was up 25.6% vs. the previous 60 days.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 9th, 2023
Uber to roll out video ads on apps, in-ride tablets - report
Citing Mark Grether, vice president and general manager of Uber Technologies’ advertising division, the report indicates up to 90 second ads will appear on tablets installed in some Uber livery vehicles and on the primary Uber app while users wait for pickup and during the ride. For Uber Eats, video ads will be played as video as orders are placed and progress through to the order delivery. Alcohol delivery app Drizly will also feature similar ads.
Uber told the Journal that ads will first be rolled out across the US this month before expanding into the UK, France and Australia. The ridesharing giant also said it will not share individual users’ data with advertisers, but does maintain the data itself. Riders and app users may opt out of ads that draw on user data, but cannot bypass ads altogether.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 15th, 2023
Oil demand to slow sharply by 2028, putting peak in sight - IEA
Global oil demand is expected to slow "almost to a halt" within five years, the International Energy Agency said in a report Wednesday, as higher prices and supply concerns will likely speed up the shift to clean energy sources and electric vehicles.
Notably, the use of gasoline for vehicles is set to decline after 2026, given increased adoption of EVs and biofuels.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 14th, 2023
News, Facts, Analyst & Market Commentary - Short Reads
Air taxi interest heats up as FAA highlights milestones
Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) operators are attracting evermore attention as regulators signal the reality of flying taxis appears closer than ever.
The analysis adds that eVTOLS could be smiled upon by lawmakers given their potential to reduce emissions. Further, the proliferation of these electric vehicles could “greatly reduce traffic congestion, reducing fuel wasted and carbon emitted from being stuck in traffic” while also easing commuting in general for travelers.
“In our view, JOBY and ACHR are the closest to having their respective aircraft types certified by regulators, with years of flight tests under their belts and final approvals expected in 2024 (ACHR) and 2025 (JOBY),” the analysts concluded.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 10th, 2023
Is the regional bank stock rout overdone? Insiders seem to think so
The number of U.S. regional bank insiders purchasing shares in their own companies reached a three-year high during Q2, in what appears to be a vote of confidence in the sector after the recent collapse of a few regional lenders, according to research firm VerityData.
The number of insider buyers jumped to 778 in Q2 through May 26 from 524 during all of Q1, Reuters recently reported, citing the VerityData research. The magnitude of this buying frenzy has not been seen since Q1 2020. During Q2 through May 26, 2023, some 244 banks experienced heavy insider buying, including US Bancorp (USB), Zions Bancorp (ZION), SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and East West Bancorp (EWBC).
In another sign of bullish sentiment among bank insiders, the buyers-to-sellers ratio hit a record high of 14.7 to 1 in Q2, VerityData pointed out, compared with the average quarterly ratio of 1.8 to 1.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 10th, 2023
U.S. solar tallied best-ever Q1, with usage seen doubling in next five years
The U.S. solar industry enjoyed the most growth of any Q1 in its history in 2023, as supply chain constraints showed signs of loosening, and should triple in market size by 2028, with 236 GW of new capacity expected in the next five years.
According to a report this week from Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association, 6.1 GW of solar was installed across the U.S. in Q1, up 47% from a year earlier, and accounted for 54% of all new electricity generating capacity added to the grid during the quarter.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 10th, 2023
SPY 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ $BTC $ETH
Goldman's Kostin gets bullish on S&P, Morgan Stanley's Wilson says bear still alive
The Goldman Sachs equity team no longer expects the market to be lower from current levels at the end of the year.
But the Morgan Stanley team still says there is more deceleration in earnings to come and that rather than riding to the rescue, AI may actually pressure margins.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 12th, 2023
UBS: ‘We continue to expect a hard landing’
“We continue to expect a hard landing, and an economic contraction of roughly 1% peak to trough in real GDP beginning next quarter with subsequent impact on the labor market,” the investment bank noted in a recent note to its clients.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 12th, 2023
Salesforce launches AI Cloud for businesses
The company said AI Cloud can auto-generate personalized emails, chat replies, content, case summaries, and even write code, among other things, for sales agents, marketers, and developers.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 12th, 2023
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin slightly higher as CPI rises at slowest pace since April 2021
Headline consumer prices rose 4.0% Y/Y in May, slightly trailing the 4.1% consensus, slowing from the 4.9% increase logged in the prior month. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 5.3%, matching expectations, down from +5.5% in April.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 13th, 2023
Archer Aviation stock surges 20% after hiring former FAA chief
As expected, former acting FAA administrator Billy Nolen has joined Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR).
The addition of Nolen as Chief Safety Officer comes after months of rumors that he would join the company. Nolen was characterized as a “strong advocate for the eVTOL aircraft industry” in his capacity as FAA administrator in the announcement of his appointment to the role.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 13th, 2023
Netflix trades higher after BofA reiterates Buy rating
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock rose ~2% on Tuesday after BofA Securities reiterated its Buy rating on the shares.
The firm also raised its price target on the stock to $490 from $410.
BofA analysts said that last week, multiple third-party data firms suggested that Netflix's password sharing crackdown was tracking better than expectations. The analysts believe this will drive upward estimate revisions across the Street.
The analysts said they were increasing their forecast to reflect better subscriber additions due to password sharing. They now forecast 18.7M net additions in CY23E (compared to 13.7M previously) and ~20M net adds in CY24 (versus 16M previously).
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 13th, 2023
Electric vehicles can take a victory lap with ICE dominance in the rear-view mirror
The firm noted electric vehicles for the first time are expected to account for a larger portion of new model launches at 46% vs. ICE at 36% and hybrids representing another 18%.
BofA's forecast is now for 1.6M electric vehicles to be sold in calendar year 2023/model year 2024, 2.2M EVs in calendar year 2024/model year 2025, 3.5M EVs in calendar year 2025/model year 2026, and 4.6M EVs in calendar year 2026/model year 2027.
The fresh analysis from BofA indicates that the onslaught of new models will take Tesla s (NASDAQ:TSLA) share of the electric vehicle market to 18% in 2026 from 62% in 2022. In addition, the share of incumbents vs. entrants (including TSLA) is seen shifting from 35%-65% currently to 70%-30% by 2026 with significant market share pickups anticipated for Ford (8% up to 14%), GM (5% to 14%) and Stellantis (STLA) (less than 1% to 8%).
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 14th, 2023
AMD retains rating at Wells Fargo despite no big customers named for new AI chip
The analysts said they think AMD shares sold off as there were no MI300 customer announcements. However consistent with the analysts' expectation, AMD noted that a full MI300 launch is scheduled for Q4'23 — expecting cloud announcements then.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 14th, 2023
Putting a number to Tesla's new Supercharger-for-all business
The Morgan Stanley "plausible case" assumes 20% EV miles penetration, 70% Tesla share of Supercharging and 50% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $14 per share.
The Morgan Stanley "dominant case" assumes 30% EV miles penetration, 80% Tesla share of Supercharging and 70% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $33 per share.
The Morgan Stanley "monopoly case" assumes 50% EV miles penetration, 100% Tesla share of Supercharging and 80% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $78 per share.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 15th, 2023
Enovix hits Q2 milestone early, producing 18K battery cells
Enovix (NASDAQ:ENVX) +4.5% post-market Thursday after saying it already has achieved its Q2 forecast of 18K units manufactured at its Fab1 site in California, and with two weeks remaining in the quarter, it expects to beat Q2 guidance for the number of units produced.
For the full year, the company reiterated guidance for production of 180K cells from Fab1 to support broad qualification activities and customer products.
Link to Seeking Alpha News Article - June 15th, 2023
RKLB 0.00%↑ #SpaceX
The 'world's first space factory' has successfully been deployed
"The world's first space factory's solar panels have found the sun and it's beginning to de-tumble," Varda announced on Twitter, shortly after the satellite was lifted to orbit aboard SpaceX's Transporter-8 mission on Monday, June 13.
The W-Series 1 satellite is housed within one of Rocket Lab's Photon platforms, a satellite solution that NASA has also contracted for two Mars missions next year.
Link to Interesting Engineering News Article - June 13th, 2023
Opinion Pieces - Facts & Opinions - Long Reads
Broadcom: AI Exposure Should Grow Rapidly
By working with Broadcom and Marvell Technology (MRVL), these titans purchase and develop application-specific integrated circuits (''ASICs''). These chips end up being cheaper compared with off-the-shelf merchant chips.
this would leave Broadcom priced at 19x this year's free cash flow. But as I said last week, Broadcom is already now in fiscal Q3 2023. That means that this year actually finishes in October 2023.
Link to Seeking Alpha Opinion Piece - June 7th, 2023
Podcasts:
The Compound - What Are Your Thoughts?
Explains the sector rotation we are in. Complete picture of where we stand today and why we could be in a new bull market.
CNBC - Halftime Report:
Stocks Rally Despite the Fed’s Message 6/15/23
Good Episode for a macro POV on where the markets are
Disclosure: We own positions in some/all of the tickers mentioned in this article.
